Why sustainable policing depends on integrated planning

Against this backdrop, two disciplines – medium‑term financial planning and strategic workforce planning – have become central to force sustainability. Historically these functions have operated in parallel, but not always in harmony. Today, the forces making the biggest strides in operational resilience and long‑term financial stability are those that treat them not as separate processes, but as mutually dependent planning systems.

A changing landscape for policing

Policing has undergone significant transformation over the past decade. Crime types have diversified, requiring capabilities in areas such as cybercrime, intelligence analysis, digital forensics, data exploitation, and public protection. Demand is more complex and less predictable. Retention challenges are intensifying in certain specialist roles, and competition for digital‑skills talent has never been higher.

At the same time, forces are managing financial pressures including rising pay costs, estate upgrades, major technology investments, pension liabilities, inflation and operational cost growth. The combination means traditional annual or siloed planning cycles cannot keep pace. The workforce a force can afford and the workforce a force needs must be designed together.

Medium‑term financial planning in policing

The Medium‑Term Financial Plan (MTFP) is the mechanism through which forces forecast income, outline expenditure requirements, plan capital investment, and assess risk over a three‑to‑five‑year horizon. Well‑developed MTFPs typically include salary and on‑cost projections (the largest element of expenditure), operational and capital requirements, assumptions for pay awards, inflation, demand, and funding, scenario modelling for financial risk.

The central challenge is that MTFPs often quantify the cost of the workforce but do not always reflect the capability required to meet future policing needs.

Strategic workforce planning in policing

Strategic workforce planning provides the long‑term view of workforce supply and demand. It identifies the skills, roles, capacity, and capabilities needed to deliver a force’s strategic objectives, both now and in the future. Effective strategic workforce planning goes beyond headcount planning, succession and leadership pipeline mapping. It incorporates demand and skills forecasting, workforce supply modelling (including retirements, leavers, recruitment pipelines), labour‑market insights and capability planning.

But while strategic workforce planning provides the blueprint for a future‑ready workforce, without financial alignment the plan may become aspirational rather than deliverable.

The case for integration

People are the largest investment: With more than 80% of policing budgets typically tied to the workforce, decision about workforce design cannot be separated from financial planning. Changes to the workforce mix, whether through specialist hiring, civilianisation, or new operating models, carry significant financial implications.

Skills drive cost profiles: New specialist roles often command different market rates. Digital, cyber, and intelligence skills attract higher salaries and require sustained investment in training and technology. Strategic workforce planning shapes these needs; the MTFP must plan for them.

Shared data strengthens evidence‑based decision‑making: When forecasting models are integrated – combining workforce demand, supply, attrition, training pipeline data, and cost modelling – forces gain a far clearer picture of future risk and opportunity.

Integrated planning reduces business risk: Disjointed planning can lead to recruitment ‘bubbles’ with long‑term cost consequences, capability gaps emerging during financial tightening, training pipelines misaligned with operational need and unplanned cost pressure or overspend. Integrated planning prevents these risks and enables forces to invest sustainably.

Financial reality anchors workforce ambition: Integrated planning gives leadership confidence that workforce plans are affordable, prioritised, aligned to force strategy and deliverable within the funding envelope. It moves conversations from ‘what we want’ to ‘what we can sustainably deliver’.

The strategic advantage of alignment

With police reforms proposed in the ‘From local to national: a new model for policing‘ white paper, there is an opportunity for forces that align their medium‑term financial planning with strategic workforce planning to achieve measurable gains, including:

greater financial sustainability
improved ability to meet emerging threats and public expectations
more resilient succession and leadership pipelines
reduced capability risks
optimised workforce mix and deployment models
more transparent accountability to PCCs and the public

Practical approaches to strategic alignment

Skills for Justice is proud to be working in partnership with the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) on a ground-breaking national strategic workforce planning project. In collaboration with four trailblazer forces – Cumbria, Merseyside, Staffordshire, and Warwickshire Police, we are developing a robust workforce planning architecture designed to benefit both local police forces and national policing strategy.

Our approach is supporting the trailblazer forces to:

Design and deliver local workforce plans tailored to each force’s unique needs.
Develop a consistent, nationally standardised structure for workforce planning, informed by local insight and robust data.
Identify and standardise key metrics and language for demand, workforce, and analytics, supported by shared modelling tools.
Embed joint governance and integrated planning cycles to ensure financial and workforce decisions are taken holistically.
Align workforce planning with Force Management Statements, financial planning, and core strategic strategies.
Ensure current and future workforces are matched to demand and technological advancements.

As policing becomes more complex, forces that align medium-term financial planning with strategic workforce planning will be best placed to deliver sustainable, capable services.

Reflecting on the importance of integrated planning, Janette McCormick QPM, Strategic Workforce Lead at the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), notes:

“Strategic workforce planning is vital for aligning financial and human resources with operational requirements. It underpins efficient and effective policing and is therefore an essential part of overall performance.

“This collaboration will provide forces with the best practice tools and resources to support improvements in their strategic workforce planning, providing a platform to better anticipate staffing requirements and service demand in the future.”