Strategic workforce planning for Forensic Services

Forensic Services operates in an increasingly complex environment. Demand is evolving, technology is advancing rapidly, and scrutiny and regulation continue to increase. Crime types are shifting, with more offences leaving digital footprints and requiring forensic input.

SPA required a holistic assessment of organisational drivers and a structured framework to align workforce planning with future service demand. Strategic workforce planning was identified as critical to:

• Forecasting workforce supply and demand over a five-year horizon
• Identifying current and future skills gaps
• Ensuring resilience to future demand
• Maintaining an engaged and skilled workforce
• Supporting medium-term financial planning

This required robust data analysis, structured engagement, scenario modelling, and a clear action plan aligned to business goals.

Skills for Justice delivered a structured, evidence-led strategic workforce planning programme using our Six Steps Methodology to Integrated Workforce Planning®, working in partnership with the Forensic Services leadership team.

This was a jointly resourced project, combining Skills for Justice’s expertise with internal operational knowledge to ensure the plan was practical, credible and owned by the organisation.

Engagement and evidence gathering included:

• Interviews, focus groups and surveys across Forensic Services
• Engagement with SPA corporate teams, Police Scotland and the Crown
• Review of internal performance data and external sector evidence

We analysed three years of historic workforce and demand data, including workforce demographics, service length, turnover, sickness rates, promotions and caseload volumes.

A key component was demand forecasting across crime groups 1-8 and the development of four plausible future scenarios. These were stress-tested and translated into workforce implications, supported by practical planning tools including scenario modelling and resource heat maps.

Activity analysis and gap analysis assessed:

• The alignment between current roles, skills and future demand
• Abstraction rates and productivity considerations
• Supply routes and career pathways
• Succession risks and retirement profiles

The final strategic workforce plan brought together the evidence base, demand forecasting, scenario modelling and a clear set of actions across workforce planning, education and training, recruitment and retention, and workforce culture, designed as a framework to be refreshed and built upon over time.

The strategic workforce plan has strengthened workforce decision-making within Forensic Services and provided a clearer basis for future planning.

Key impacts include:

• Five-year visibility of projected workforce pressures through structured demand forecasting
• Retirement and succession risks identified and acted upon through planned recruitment activity
• A fully costed baseline scenario informing medium-term financial planning
• Stronger alignment between workforce planning, financial sustainability and Best Value requirements
• Clear governance and reporting arrangements to monitor progress through the annual performance framework.

“Working in partnership with Skills for Justice, we developed a strategic workforce plan that has given us a clear, evidence-based view of future demand and the workforce implications for Forensic Services. The structured approach, strong engagement and detailed demand forecasting have strengthened our ability to plan proactively rather than reactively.

“The tools developed, including scenario modelling, succession mapping and a fully costed baseline are already informing recruitment and financial planning, and the plan will continue to be refreshed as a living document.

“The plan was presented to and approved by the Scottish Police Authority Board, providing a clear mandate for its implementation.”

– Sam Curran, Head of Function, Forensic Services