New prison capacity strategy shows no easy fix

The prisons crisis is nothing new. The sector has been warning for decades that a lack of funding, coupled with serious recruitment and retention issues, has been pushing our criminal justice system to the edge.

The prisoner early release scheme has brought this vital part of our public services into sharp focus recently and is telling of the capacity issues our prisons are facing.

Supply schedule

In 2021, the government announced plans to deliver 20,000 additional prison places by the mid-2020s. Only 6,000 have been created so far, prompting the government to revise its plans and set a new target of 2032 for the remaining 14,000.

Whilst the new administration shows ambition to fix some of the planning and construction challenges this scheme of work had faced so far, that alone will not fix the capacity issue in the short term.

Coupled with the need for refurbishment in ageing infrastructure and facilities – a quarter of prison placements are in Victorian era buildings, and over half were built pre-1960 – there are no immediate solutions to prison overcrowding contained within this report.

No significant expansion of prison capacity, even under these revised plans, are expected until early 2027.

What are the options for us now?

Prison population growth and demand for spaces are likely to exceed supply year-on-year.

Longer-term, the prison capacity strategy should help reverse this trend, but in the immediate future the criminal justice system will need to look for alternative mechanisms to limit the growth of the prisoner population.

Early Release Scheme

The early release scheme (SDS40), started in 2024 , is (subject to conditions) reducing the minimum amount of time served from 50% to 40% for certain offenses. What remains to be seen is the impact this has on offender rehabilitation and community safety, something we strongly believe will need urgent and rigorous evaluation.

In addition, the strain on the probation workforce needs to be addressed, with reports this year that probation officers were working at 120% case load capacity, short term solutions like the early release scheme are potentially causing longer term problems elsewhere.

Sentencing overview

The government has committed to the Independent Review of Sentencing which will be completed in spring 2025. The recommendations that come from this review may alleviate some of the pressure of people entering the system, and coupled with the early release scheme, reduce overall demand on prison spaces. However, whilst the review has the admirable aim of “expanding and making greater use of punishment out of prison”, we hope that the short-term issue of prison capacity does not influence the recommendations, which should be solely focussed on the rehabilitative efficacy of prison sentences in order to improve outcomes.

Out of court resolutions (OOCR)

Out of court resolutions (formerly known as out of court disposals) will play an important role in reducing the demand on prisons going forward. The options available to police have been reformatted over the last five years or so, and there is evidence that they are not consistently and effectively being applied to prevent people entering into the criminal justice system.

Using non-custodial pathways and existing alternatives to sentencing is a strong option for reducing prison capacity in the short term (with a view, of course, on the effectiveness of these in protecting community safety).

Restorative justice

A cross over from OOCR is restorative justice, sometimes called immediate justice. This focuses on enabling consenting victims and offenders to participate in non-custodial resolutions to criminal offences. This approach centres on conflict resolution and addressing the root causes of criminal offenses, rather than defaulting to punitive sanctions.

Whilst not appropriate for all offenses, it could help reduce the number of individuals entering the custodial system. Arguably restorative justice has a significant role to play in preventing serious crime by helping those at risk of entering the criminal justice system to change challenging behaviour.

Multi-agency solutions for the prison system

In order to tackle the short-term capacity challenges of the detained estate we need multi-agency solutions aimed at reducing demand for prison spaces overall. In doing so, not only can we address a major challenge, but we can be aware of any knock-on effects of decision making.

There is an opportunity in this situation for the justice sector – and the public – to push for greater focus on rehabilitation and community safety rather than punishment.

It is clear that we are entering an era of significant change for the criminal justice system. We look forward to seeing what innovations are brought forward over the coming years.